Natural gas hit familiar territory, if unfortunate, at the Permian’s Waha price hub during the week ending March 14, as the spot price went negative for the first time in 2025.

Unlike last year, the primary reason has been annual pipeline maintenance, analysts say.

“Maintenance is the driver here,” said Alex Gafford, analyst for East Daley Analytics, in an email to Hart Energy.

Kinder Morgan is currently conducting yearly maintenance on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline, which carries gas from the Permian westward and northward to Colorado, Arizona and California.

The Whistler Pipeline, a WhiteWater-operated joint venture carrying Permian gas to the Gulf Coast, is also undergoing maintenance.

“It is difficult to track Permian day-to-day production given Permian production’s weak correlation to the pipeline sample, however, we estimate month-over-month gains into March are only 70 MMcf/d,” Gafford said.  

Pipeline flows are easier to track when they cross state lines, as they become federally regulated and required to report their transmission amounts. Intrastate pipelines, many of which take Permian gas to fractionators along the Texas coast, do not operate under the same requirements.

Gafford noted the overall picture of gas demand remains healthy. 

Gas in storage is 12% below the five-year average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Cold weather in January and February caused larger-than-average withdrawals from storage.

Recently, warmer weather has dropped the demand pull, and natural gas prices nationally have declined from the beginning of March, from almost $4.50/MMBtu at the Henry Hub to $4/MMBtu on March 16.

“A weak Waha is tied to limited pipeline egress out of the basin—less so Henry. (On March 14) the spot Waha priced at nearly -$1, signaling the lack of pipeline available to move gas out of the supply region,” Gafford said.

Pipeline constraints caused spot gas prices to turn negative 49 times in 2024, a record.

The situation eased when the WhiteWater-operated Matterhorn Express Pipeline opened in October 2024. Analysts said the ramp-up on the line was one of the fastest ever and it quickly neared capacity.

Associated natural gas production in the Permian has been increasing along with crude production. Mature wells tend to produce more gas as time passes.

The next egress addition to the Permian will come again from the Matterhorn, Gafford said. WhiteWater plans to add compression to the line this summer, adding an incremental 500 MMcf/d.

The next pipeline will most likely be WhiteWater’s Blackcomb line, slated to come online in 2026, adding another 2.5 Bcf/d.

Gafford said temporary dips in the price should not derail producers. As more LNG production along the Gulf Coast comes online, more natural gas will be needed.  

“With the LNG ramp of Plaquemines and CC3, gas production needs to pick up,” he said. “We have been saying it, and the forward strip is beginning to tell that story more and more also. We have about 1.7 Bcf/d of growth from January 25 to July 25, with the Haynesville and Permian as the primary vectors.”

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