Poten: North American LNG Projects to Double Capacity by 2027

Nine liquefaction projects under construction in North America, with an ability to add capacity of 98.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), are expected to come online by the end of 2027, according to an analysis by Poten & Partners.

North American’s LNG capacity is currently about 86.6 mtpa, based on U.S. Energy Information Administration data. The additions tracked by Poten would more than double LNG export capacity.

Of the projects, six are located in the U.S., two in Canada and one in Mexico, Poten said in a Sept. 26 analysis.

In 2024, two projects will come online by year-end: Venture Global LNG’s 13.3 mtpa Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 (Louisiana); and Cheniere Energy’s 10 mtpa Corpus Christi Stage III (Texas).

In 2025, three projects will come online:

• QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil’s 18.1 mtpa Golden Pass LNG (Texas);
• Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and Korea Gas’ 14 mtpa LNG Canada (British Columbia); and Venture Global’s 6.7 mtpa Plaquemines LNG Phase 2 (Louisiana) in mid-2025.

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In 2026, one project will come online: Sempra’s 3.3 mtpa Energia Costa Azul (Mexico), according to Sempra’s new timetable.

In 2027, three projects will come online:

• NextDecade’s 17.6 mtpa Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 (Texas) in early-2027);
• Sempra’s 13.5 mtpa Port Arthur LNG Phase 1; and
• Pacific Energy and Enbridge’s 2.1 mtpa Woodfibre LNG (British Columbia).

Poten expects LNG supply growth of around 186 mtpa over the next 10 years, which would represent a 3.8% CAGR. Also within the next 10 years, Poten expects the market share of the top 10 LNG producers to rise to 88% from around 82% now. Five of the top 10 producers are state controlled or state monopolies, according to Poten.

The U.S.’ share of the LNG market is expected to reach 29% in 10 years from 21% now, Poten said.

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