Global energy markets are acutely focused on North American energy independence and the possibility of exports of light tight oil and natural gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Perhaps somewhat under the radar, the co-production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) has also soared for ethane, propane, butane, isobutene, pentanes and heavier constituents (C5+).

As production has risen, NGL prices have fallen from $80 per bbl. in 2003 to roughly $40 per bbl. in the first quarter of 2013. Mirroring the earlier natural gas “shale gale” and resultant price tumble in the North American gas market, energy markets are now weighing the risk of multiyear NGL price declines unless demand or exports ramp soon.

Exports of propane and propylene have already tripled since 2008; from 19 million bbl. to 70 million bbl. Exports of normal butane and butylene have nearly doubled over that timeframe as well.

While the U.S. Department of Energy closely tracks these propane and butane exports, another NGL that is being exported under the radar is natural gasoline (C5+). Exporters are sending out natural gasoline to be used by foreign operators as a refinery feedstock or blendstock, as a refined product, or even for use as a diluent.

NGL pipelines that cross U.S. borders require presidential permits and national interest determinations by the State Department. But NGL exports from U.S. coasts require fewer politically charged approvals than those required to export LNG. And capital investments needed to establish or expand NGL export facilities are billions less than LNG liquefaction plants. Overall, exporting NGLs is generally simpler than exporting LNG. That’s why rising inland NGL production volumes are rushing to the Mont Belvieu hub and nearby marine export terminals.

Can the international markets sustain the pending growth in U.S. NGL exports? Hart Energy research notes that U.S. shale NGLs already reach markets across Latin America and Europe. And with the 2015 completion of the Panama Canal expansion project, even Asia will be a target, as post-expansion tanker capacities rise and shipping costs and times fall.

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