Global refinery runs will rise by about 1 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) this year, according to a new report by the research and consulting firm GlobalData. The largest increases will come in China and the Middle East, it added, as new plants come onstream.

The increased capacity will provide new competition to growing U.S. petroleum exports and add to European refiners’ woes. Overall, the report projected U.S. refinery utilization will tick upward during 2014.

China will add a little more than 500,000 bbl/d of new refining capacity when two new refineries at Pengzhou and Quanzhou come online and a third refinery at Yangzi completes a major expansion. However, the increased capacity will be offset in part by major turnarounds at other Chinese refineries scheduled for the second and third quarters.

Middle East refinery startups will add a similar amount of new capacity and “this increase in Middle Eastern refining capacity will have a profound impact on global product trade flows” from North America and elsewhere, the firm predicted.

“The higher refining throughput levels in the Middle East are a consequence of new large and efficient refineries in the region,” said Carmine Rositano, GlobalData’s managing analyst covering downstream oil and gas. “Saudi Arabia’s 400,000 bbl/d Jubail refinery is ramping up to full capacity and its 400,000 bbl/d Yanbu refinery will become operational in September.”

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirate’s 420,000 bbl/d Ruwais refinery is scheduled to start up late this year, Rositano added.

“The increase in gasoline volumes will reduce 2014 gasoline imports into the Middle East by approximately 100,000 bbl/d from both Europe and India. Gasoline volumes from India will alternatively be sold intra-Asia, but European gasoline will have a tough time finding a home and likely result in lower refining runs. This will exacerbate the pressure on refining activities in Europe,” he said.

GlobalData’s report also said new jet fuel production from the Middle East will be moving primarily to Europe, displacing long-haul shipments from refineries in Asian countries, such as Singapore, Japan and South Korea. That Asian production will instead move into the Asian market.

Runs of the other major distillate, diesel, will go to regional Middle Eastern markets and to Europe. The Jubail refinery produced the region’s first ultralow sulfur diesel (ULSD) early this year, which was exported to Europe.

“The Middle East will flex its muscles by increasing ULSD exports to compete with the U.S. and Russia for market share in Europe,” Rositano added.

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