While there is certainly anticipated growth in electric-powered commercial vehicles in the coming years, diesel fuel will remain the dominant way commercial vehicles are run for the foreseeable future, according to a report by IHS Markit released on Sept. 18.

The report predicts that 66% of new medium- and heavy-commercial vehicles that will be sold in the U.S. in 2040 will be fueled by diesel—whether diesel or diesel-hybrid vehicles. Today, that number stands at nearly 80%, per IHS Markit’s study, “Reinventing the Truck.”

In fact, the report says that diesel fuel will continue to be the dominant fuel worldwide through 2040. That is largely because of anticipated increases in fuel economy which will help keep diesel competitive with renewables. Range and load capacity requirements from long-haul, on-highway trucking will keep diesel relevant in the short- and long-term, while other propulsion types will grow in popularity as technology continues to advance.

“Understanding the future course of commercial trucking is so important because its impacts will reverberate far beyond just the trucking industry and through a whole host of industries,” Daniel Evans, vice president of the IHS Markit downstream practice and co-author of the study said in a statement. “Trucking accounts for half of diesel demand globally, or one-sixth of oil demand, making the future of trucking critically important for the oil industry.

“A wholistic, systemwide view is needed to see the full picture of this new reality of transportation.”

Part of that wholistic view is that renewable or electric-power vehicles will see some gains, too. The report predicts a 15% compound annual growth rate for battery-operated electric vehicles in the U.S. during the same timeframe as adoption rates increase in medium-duty trucks.

There isn’t bigger growth expected in electric power for commercial vehicles because continued concerns remain about range and battery size and weight, which could limit hauling capacity.

The report goes on to say that because of the initial cost disadvantage of these alternative powertrains, larger truck fleets will be the first to adopt alternative powertrain technologies. Smaller fleets and owner-operators encompass a large share of the market, leading to the slower adoption curve seen in the study. Larger fleets are expected to have the capacity to implement a diversified fleet in a more strategic manner, allowing for alternative propulsion options to be implemented in areas that maximize their fuel-saving benefits and minimize the range and payload penalty.

“The regulatory environment will have a large impact on the pace of change in the industry between now and 2040,” said Matt Trentacosta, automotive advisory consultant for IHS Markit and a co-author of the study. “A diesel ban within city centers has the potential to cause fleet owners to adjust their strategy alongside OEMs and suppliers.In addition, trucking impacts energy consumption and any dramatic change could elicit a major disruption in the energy markets.”

Terrance Harris can be reached at tharris@hartenergy.com

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