Growing crude oil supplies from multiple U.S. unconventional oil plays have come faster than projected even a year ago—and that trend is driving refining margins and strategies more than anything else right now, according to a study released by Turner, Mason & Co., a petroleum and petrochemical project management and engineering firm.

“More than at any time in recent history, developments in the U.S. oil patch, driven by shale exploration via fracturing, are changing the entire fabric of the domestic petroleum business and are having an increasingly positive effect on U.S. import/export balances,” the company said in announcing release of the study, “2013 Crude & Refined Products Outlook.”

Crude movements via rail continue to rise while pipeline projects are in planning or are delayed by governmental reviews. “The new shale revolution is now affecting refineries and eventually prices and margins of petroleum products in all U.S. regions,” said Mike Leger, president of Turner Mason. “Refiners in virtually all U.S. regions will soon have at least some access to price-advantaged North American crudes.”

The report examines recent developments at U.S. refining centers, as well as those in Europe and Asia, then projects a 20- year forecast for crude and refined product margins. It also surveys refining projects worldwide and possible shutdowns of existing capacity, then evaluates supply-and-demand balances by region.

“In the midst of slow economic growth and decreasing refined products demand in the U.S., these developments, plus the overall growth in demand worldwide, especially for distillates, are a breath of fresh air for U.S. refiners able to capitalize,” added Leger. “U.S. refiners are still more competitive than those in the rest of the world, creating increasing export opportunities. But there will be challenges with these and other changes, like those from the Renewable Fuel and CAFE standards.”

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