Half of 2014 has nearly passed so it’s time to benchmark how the midstream’s doing. Moody’s Investors Service recently issued a comprehensive review of the middle of the energy business.
Its conclusion: Things are slowing down, but—given midstream’s breakneck growth in recent years—the sector is still doing well.
“Our outlook for the North American midstream sector is positive,” the report said. “This outlook reflects our expectations for the fundamental business conditions in the industry over the next 12 to 18 months.”
The report estimates infrastructure investment is slowing due to a likely decrease in growth capital spending this year of 6% to 8%. “A number of high profile, multiyear capital spending programs have now peaked. EBITDA for the midstream sector will still grow by about 12% to 14% through mid-to-late 2015, however,” it added.
“High oil prices, strong North American oil production and brisk shale development keep supporting strong infrastructure demand contributing to higher cash flow across the midstream sector through mid-to-late 2015,” Moody’s concluded, adding that the Marcellus and Bakken will remain particular hotspots through the end of next year.
For MLPs, the dominant business structure in the midstream, “structural growth incentives will keep propelling increases in the midstream sector’s EBITDA and distributable cash flow. Midstream companies will pursue more M&A [mergers and acquisitions] activity as organic capital spending slows.”
Weak commodity prices will serve as a drag on “midstream’s robust growth,” the report determined, adding that “natural gas and NGL prices remain weak, but even with processing margins under some pressure, volume growth from past investment activity will help offset this weakness. More companies will look for MLP opportunities, and companies serving regions with declining natural gas investment and production will seek ways to avoid stranded assets.”
Senior Editor Frank Nieto tackles the important topic of what’s happening with the NGL side of the business in this issue. NGL prices remain weak, but that hasn’t slowed production growth, thanks to the rich gas and light crudes typically flowing from the unconventional shale plays.
All that ethane, propane, butane and natural gasoline has to go somewhere, and the result is a redrawing of the NGL infrastructure map—and a rebirth in the U.S. petrochemical business. And, amazingly, the start of brisk NGL exports.
Ethane has taken the biggest price hit and that trend could continue for a while, according to Oppenheimer & Co. analysts Bernard Colson and Benjamin Okin. “We believe a sustainable recovery in ethane prices will not be supported until we have significant new ethylene production capacity come online, which is not expected in the next several years,” they wrote in an MLP first-quarter earnings preview.
Meanwhile, one of the most popular features with Midstream Business readers has been our Executive Q&A series. We’re expanding it starting with this issue into a larger feature, called simply The Interview. It will allow executives to more fully discuss their goals, objectives and what they see for the future of the midstream.
We’re pleased that one of the industry’s most highly regarded executives, Richard Kinder, the co-founder, CEO and chairman of the board of Kinder Morgan, took time to reflect on the firm’s success as we start what I know will be a well-read section of this magazine.
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