The energy industry will see peak oil demand before it sees peak oil supply, according to Joseph Stanislaw. "Demand is a powerful force. China alone puts a floor on world oil demand."
He spoke at Deloitte's oil and gas conference in Houston last month. Stanislaw is an independent senior advisor to Deloitte's energy and resources practice, and is the founder of The JAStanislaw Group. He foresees growth of 8% to 10% in Chinese oil demand, and nothing ahead that would change this scenario except a major world recession.
As U.S. demand is growing as well, Congress should act to encourage conservation, greater energy efficiency in autos, and other ways to tamp demand growth, he added. "Energy efficiency is very important. It's like having thousands of termites in your house-you never see them until the wall collapses. Thousands of little changes in the way we use energy, which may seem insignificant, add up to make a very big difference."
Access to oil supply-the resources and land-is a challenge today, so better partnering may help companies achieve greater success, said Richard Woodward, U.S. oil and gas leader for Deloitte Consulting LLP. In 1960, about 85% of probable oil reserves worldwide were accessible to all companies. Today, only 15% are, and the national oil companies dominate access to the rest.
Geopolitical issues have become more critical than ever, and political relationships will affect the way oil companies and countries can partner, Woodward and Stanislaw agreed.
"The world has changed," Woodward said. "Energy is dead central to everything today. Think about Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, economic growth in China and India. There is a lot of risk in this industry outside of price risk, and it's harder to manage than price risk."
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