Need they say more? Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown's oil industry analysts have put some telling titles on their assessments of the big public oil companies, as part of their two-volume, 647-page Major Oils 2000: New Order? discussion. Of most of the firms, the analysts expect changes. Two have already made some. The analysis of Texaco is titled "Exile on Main Street." Chevron, "Tumbling Dice." Since the report's release, the two majors plan to merge, which the DBAB analysts forewarn. They write that investors perceive Chevron to be too small to compete with what they call "the Four Sisters:" Exxon Mobil, BP Plc, Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Cos. and group newcomer TotalElfFina SA. Meanwhile, Texaco's size in contrast to these supermajors "cannot win the fight for investor dollars." ChevronTexaco Corp. will be a challenger to the Four Sisters. In reserves and production, the new company will surpass TotalFinaElf. Their report on Conoco Inc. is titled "Waiting on a Friend." Conoco's next step is to merge for size (the company has one-sixth the production of Exxon Mobil). But it can't do a deal prior to Aug. 6, 2001-the expiration date on harsh tax penalties that would kick in, related to its spinoff in 1999 from DuPont Co. • A look at Greek oil company Hellenic Petroleum, "Goodbuy Yesterday." The stock is priced "far too high to warrant any other recommendation than Underperform in a global oil sector," the analysts write. • Norway's Norsk Hydro, "Where's the Love?" The company has received little credit from the market for its increased rate of internal change. And, more radical changes are coming, with privatization of Norway's SDFI interests on the Norwegian North Sea continental shelf. It is likely the locals, such as Norsk Hydro and Statoil, will get these state goods. • China's PetroChina Corp., "We've Only Just Begun." The investment market remains unsure of whether the newly public company can make good on its initial-public-offering commitments. • The Netherlands-based Royal Dutch/Shell, "This is Tomorrow Calling." The company's fresh set of targets, delivery of volume growth and leaner chemicals business all bode well for its stock. It has the financial position to make acquisitions that will pose new growth opportunities. Recently, it has announced plans to acquire production and LNG operations and assets in Australia and New Zealand. • France's TotalFinaElf, "Soul Sister." One of the Four Sisters, the company has industry-leading upstream growth and return targets. "Watch for a powerful cocktail of cost savings, volume growth and share buybacks into next year." • Exxon Mobil, "Satisfaction." The merger has created "an operational juggernaut that should be able to show significant organic growth while simultaneously cutting billions of dollars in costs and buying back tens of billions worth of stock." • The analysts call BP "The Company Formerly Known as British Petroleum" and say the U.K.-based concern's tremendous changes in the past two years are far from over. "We believe that if BP is to fully unlock the value from [its] assets and become a true competitor to Shell, then higher investment rates will be needed in gas-trading, power-generation and gas-customer bases." The analysts look for BP to make midstream gas acquisitions in the U.S. and Europe, take additional stakes in Chinese and former Soviet Union oil companies (BP, Exxon Mobil and Shell purchased a total of approximately 10% of China Petroleum & Chemical, also known as Sinopec, during its recent public offering), mergers, and more restructuring of its chemicals business. "BP still lacks the chemicals asset base to compete with Exxon," the analysts write. • Norway's Statoil, "I'm Waiting for the Man." The Norwegian government will make an initial public offering of its 100%-owned Statoil by first-quarter-end 2002. State distribution of SDFI (Norwegian continental shelf) assets will make the IPO even more interesting. • Spain's Repsol, "Interregnum." The acquisitively bold company (it recently acquired Argentina's YPF) "is a conundrum in an interregnum. To address its strategic issues, Repsol needs time, money and, possibly, partners." • South Africa's Sasol, "Weird Science." The major has reached maturation in the South African market. Most of its growth is expected to come from export-chemical projects, offshore acquisitions and gas-to-liquids projects. • Russia's Gazprom, "Money Talks." The former-FSU gas company is expected to record $100 billion in hard-currency revenue this year. But distribution of its earnings to shareholders remains an issue. • Brazil's Petrobras, "Pump Up the Volume." The newly U.S.-listed Brazilian oil company's stock has a compelling valuation and is a good way to capitalize on fast-growing energy demand in Latin America. • Italy's Eni, "Grasping the Nettle." This assessment could also be titled "Buy, Buy, Buy." The company and its valuation have been left behind in the wave of big-oil changes of the past two years, making the major a sitting duck "in an environment where there are potential predators." Management is unloved by both shareholders and the Italian government. Its shares are attractively priced, however. "Buy," the analysts recommend. • And, Phillips Petroleum, "Start Me Up." The Oklahoma-based major's production will grow 15% next year, creating substantial free cash flow, from acquired properties, such as Arco's Alaskan assets, which Arco sold to receive antitrust approval of its merger with BP. "As debt is paid down, we see room for further multiple expansion. We believe Phillips now has the legacy assets in place to fund major new projects around the globe."

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