Study: Utica Holds 20x As Much Gas As Believed

A recently released report by West Virginia University sets recoverable gas reserves in the Utica Shale at more than 20 times the estimate of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

The two-year study by the Appalachian Oil & Natural Gas Consortium concluded that the Utica possesses total recoverable resources of 782.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas, far beyond the previous estimate of 38 Tcf. The neighboring Marcellus Shale is estimated to hold 500 Tcf to 800 Tcf of natural gas.

“The revised resource numbers are impressive, comparable to the numbers for the more established Marcellus Shale play, and a little surprising based on our Utica estimates of just a year ago which were lower,” Douglas Patchen, director of the consortium, said in a statement.

“But this is why we continued to work on the resource estimates after the project officially ended a year ago,” he said. “The more wells that are drilled, the more the play area may expand, and another year of production from the wells enables researchers to make better estimates.”

The study, “A Geologic Play Book for Utica Shale Appalachian Basin Exploration,” also estimates recoverable crude oil at 1.96 billion barrels (bbl), or about double the USGS estimate.

“The combination of a relatively shallow reservoir and the potential for liquids production has made this an attractive play,” researchers wrote.

Even if the study overestimates its natural gas figure by a factor of 10, the Utica would still possess more than two-and-a-half times the reserves of Australia, which is on the brink of leading the world in LNG exports.

Funded by 15 industry members of the consortium, the research team also included individuals from state geological surveys in Ohio, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and West Virginia; Washington University, St. Louis; Indiana University; Smith Stratigraphic LLC; the USGS; and the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory.

The study focused on the underlying Point Pleasant Formation, where drilling is concentrated in a north-south trend in eastern Ohio, although more recent drilling in the north has shifted toward the northeast and into northern Pennsylvania. As operators migrate their activities eastward into deeper drilling and higher maturation areas, they encounter dry gas.

“The level of thermal maturity in the Utica/Point Pleasant shows a progression in increasing bitumen reflectance from west to east, with a very steep increase occurring in eastern Ohio,” the researchers noted.

That could be a concern, as technically recoverable does not necessarily transition to economically viable.

As Gregory Wrightstone, owner of Wrightstone Energy Consulting told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review: “The billion-dollar question is how far east it will prove to be profitable and productive.”

Contact the author, Joseph Markman, at jmarkman@hartenergy.com.