At this time of year, media outlets publish their annual list of summer movie blockbusters coming to a theater near you, thoughtful or quirky art flicks for those who want to do a little thinking, and juicy beach reads for those who do not. In addition, Microsoft founder Bill Gates releases his reading list, always an intriguing selection of his recent favorites: serious scientific, economic or geopolitical themes and non-business topics that opened him up to new worlds.

It got me thinking about some summer titles we would like to see: “Escape from Oil Price Purgatory,” “Thriving in the Post-OPEC World,” “DUC Dynasty Revisited,” “My Meramec Miracle,” and “Permian EURs: A Romance.”

But for those on vacation with enough time to digest more serious reads, I’d refer you to the BP and Statoil annual world energy out-looks, both released in June.

BP’s global outlook covers the 20 years from 2015 to 2035. Overall energy consumption in the base case will grow 1.3% annually, vs. the faster pace of 2.2% growth seen from 1995-2015, even as the world population continues to rise.

It projects U.S. oil output to increase by 4 million barrels a day (MMbbl/d) by 2035, reaching 19 MMbbl/d, driven by tight oil production. OPEC-Middle East production, however, is projected to grow twice as fast, by 9 MMbbl/d.

BP’s subplot predicted the lowest-cost producers—the Middle East, Russia and U.S. tight oil producers—will continue to fight for market share.

Longer term, the one blockbuster we can-not wait to read is the prospectus for Saudi Aramco’s IPO, which could be published in 2018. If we cannot read it yet, why mention it here? I would say that the plot in each chapter is undergoing many revisions, and frequently, based on variable capital markets (list the IPO in London or New York?) and the nature of U.S. shale output (more barrels, costing less). Aramco’s reserves numbers alone will be impressive, but which price point will they have to use for the final numbers: $40/bbl? $50? $60?

Oil prices depend somewhat on the U.S. rig count, which has risen for 21 straight weeks to surpass 900. RBC Capital Markets’ latest report said it is modeling U.S. growth of 320,000-plus bbl/d in 2017, and around 1 MMbbl/d in 2018, using $55/$60 forecasts.

RBC noted that in just the first four months of 2017, the E&P industry was already operating at a spending level well above the amount required to maintain flat production.

It ran a hypothetical case of flat-lined activity at current rig levels and strip prices ($50/bbl). “Based on the current active oil-rig count of nearly 600 horizontal oil rigs, we estimate operators would be able to com-plete 8,800-9,200 Big Four wells. This would result in expected 2017 production growth of 8% and a cash flow outspend of 25% to 30% at current strip prices,” RBC said. Its Big Four are Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara.

The most dramatic movie script the industry has written is this: the oil price needed to create a 25% internal rate of return is below $40/bbl—and not even exclusive to the Permian Basin, according to Seaport Global Securities. The company also said it thinks that in U.S. shale plays there are 69,000 wells capable of generating that return (45,000 in the Permian alone), with the aver-age breakeven in the cores being closer to $34.67/bbl.

It said core portions of some plays, including the Stack and Niobrara, can generate economics more favorable than the Permian.

“Rough math shows that we have 15 years’ worth of inventory that can justifiably be drilled with oil under $40,” it said.

Any upside for oil prices rests upon these actors: a startling increase in demand, a steady reduction in global oil inventories, continued OPEC production cuts and less oil out of the rest of the world (non-OPEC, non-U.S.).

In light of these scenarios, analysts across the board have been lowering their oil price forecasts and hiking their U.S. oil production forecasts.

A June Simmons & Co. report said it best: “Energy remains complicated.”

There is the push and pull between U.S. producers and Wall Street all calling for production growth, offset by international production declines due to lack of investment. Simmons said from 2013 to 2015, international and non-OPEC supply grew by an average 600,000 bbl/d, but it was offset by 300,000 bbl/d in 2016 declines in the high-cost areas such as Mexico and China. World oil production in 2017 and 2018 is expected to be flat, it said, and a meaningful decline of 600,000 bbl/d is expected again in 2019 and 2020—and 1 million a day from 2020 through 2022.

While U.S. producers call for growth, they face a tight labor pool and, possibly, large infrastructure constraints in the Permian and for export logistics.

“If you want an orderly and predict-able industry, there are better choices than energy,” Simmons concluded. Not exactly a rave review.

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