It’s tough to put a positive spin on the virus spreading through the upstream sector these days like so many allergies in springtime, other than to say that the cure for lower oil prices is lower oil prices. That bitter tonic may heal the industry eventually, but it sure tastes horrible going down.
The most significant thing E&Ps and their service providers can do to heal from this downturn is make tough decisions to drop, defer, delay, defend.
OPEC, investors and other observers are no doubt surprised and impressed by the resilience and creativity shown by U.S. producers. Yes, shale production has been dropping, which should help bring about a recovery in prices in another six to 12 months. The EIA says U.S. crude supply has so far decreased 6.7%, or 650,000 bbl/d from April 2015’s peak amount. That’s not such a huge percentage considering the rig count is down by more than two-thirds, but it shows the time lag inherent in any upturn or downturn in commodity prices.
The EIA’s forecast at press time was for U.S. crude production this year to be down by 830,000 bbl/d, to 8.6 MMbbl/d.
Along the way to that endgame, technical advances and innovation have continued despite tough times.
For example, Eclipse Resources Corp. just pushed the envelope a bit further, having drilled a 13,000-foot lateral into the Utica condensate window in Ohio. More E&Ps are mentioning their use of big data to analyze operational results and better plan the next wells. In this month’s Q&A, PDC Energy Inc. CEO Bart Brookman says even at $40/bbl, he can wring returns between 25% and 40% from an average D-J Basin Wattenberg well.
The breakeven price in most plays has come down, as have drilling times. I doubt this enhanced efficiency is what OPEC expected.
What do executives foresee? Global consultancy DNV GL provides a clue, having just released its sixth annual survey, this time of 921 senior executives (two-thirds from service companies, one-third from E&Ps). The survey was conducted last November and December when oil was about $47/bbl.
Some 74% of respondents said they were successful in cutting costs in 2015, and 88% said cost reduction would be their top or high priority again in 2016. Costs are being targeted all along the supply chain for equipment, services, supplies, labor and operating expenses. DNV also touted innovation, partnering and collaboration as weapons against the downturn.
Collaboration has already made for some intriguing matchups: the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), which manages offshore activity, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which reaches for the stars, recently linked up in a five-year deal. Seemingly working at polar opposites, they’ve agreed to share NASA’s best risk management approaches so as to bolster worker safety and protect the environment in the Gulf of Mexico.
“Both BSEE and NASA work in harsh and uncompromising environments, relying on cutting-edge technology to go deeper and further than previously thought possible,” said BSEE director Brian Salerno in a statement. “This partnership brings together technical experts from BSEE and NASA to focus on the specific risks associated with offshore operations.”
NASA will help BSEE pursue three main objectives: further develop BSEE’s risk management capability by using NASA’s probabilistic risk assessment technique; evaluate, design and test hardware and emerging technologies; and assess offshore failures and near-miss occurrences using the expertise of NASA’s accredited failure analysis laboratory at the Johnson Space Center outside Houston.
NASA used a probabilistic risk assessment to quantify and model risk for the space shuttle and is using it now for the International Space Station.
“Whether the task takes one to deep space or into the deep ocean, the analysis of the environment, training of personnel and risk mitigation factors are similar,” said Jack James, technology transfer strategist at the Johnson Space Center.
Also in March, the University of Houston launched a new online database through its partnership with BSEE’s Ocean Energy Safety Institute (OESI). This database includes work pulled from NASA, BSEE, the National Energy Technology Labs and the European Space Agency. Information from about 100,000 projects is included, and more partners will be added. UH, Texas A&M and the University of Texas at Austin are partners. OESI is managed by A&M.
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