Consider the lay of the land in 1981: Oil prices had experienced a steady two-year climb from $15 per barrel (bbl) to more than double, surpassing an unprecedent­ed $40/bbl, spurred by a 6 million barrel a day (MMbbl/d) reduction in supply resulting from the Iraq-Iran war that was just getting underway in the Middle East. Locally, Pres­ident Reagan, upon entering office, immedi­ately declared crude price controls—in effect since the Arab Embargo in the early ’70s—to be null and void, allowing prices to float to market levels.

But that was the pinnacle for a long time to come.

High prices brought on by years of scar­city gave rise to increased production by non-OPEC producing countries. On the flip side, global demand had shrunk markedly, also resulting from the scarcity and 1970s’ increasing prices. The New York Times declared “Oil glut!” in June of that year, and the price of oil began a 20-year slide before it would approach that value again.

It was in this environment that Oil and Gas Investor debuted 35 years ago with this August issue. Hart Energy, at that time pub­lisher of oil and gas trade titles such as the Western Oil Reporter, Drillbit and Rocky Mountain Oil and Gas Directory, had just moved from above the Greyhound bus station in downtown Denver to better accommoda­tions. In a field of black-and-white, tech-fo­cused trade pubs, owner Don Hart imagined a sophisticated, glossy magazine with first-hand reporting in the oilfield and captivating field photography that would appeal to the busi­nessman in the energy investor community.

And so it was born. Oil and Gas Investor was like no other publication of its time. The goal remains the same today.

Naturally, a birthday begs a look back, if only to remind us from whence we’ve come, and to draw comparisons of then and now.

That peak price of oil in 1980 began a six-year slide that would drop off a cliff in 1985 when Saudi Arabia decided, after steadily dropping its production from 10 MMbbl/d to 3.5 MMbbl/d to support the price, that it no longer wanted to be the swing producer losing market share while its cartel cohorts contin­ued to produce without restraint. In 1985, it quickly ramped production back up to 10 MMbbl/d, and crude quickly dropped from $27/bbl to less than $10/bbl.

Sound familiar? Think back to the Thanks­giving surprise in 2014, when Saudi Arabia announced it would not support $80 crude after it had fallen from above $100. It was 30 years in the making, but the result was the same: Oil dropped some 75% before finding its bottom.

In that original New York Times article, the director of energy planning for Ford Motor Co., Jacques Maroni, likened OPEC to a trade association or country club dominated by Saudi Arabia. Has anything really changed in the past 35 years?

One constant over the years has been oil and gas prognosticator Daniel Yergin, then associated with Harvard, now vice chairman of IHSMarkit. Just a week following the oil glut piece, Yergin penned his own commen­tary warning that the glut was a potentially costly illusion. “What we have is breathing space, not deliverance,” he warned.

In fact, U.S. production soon peaked, ham­mered by a 50% drop in oil prices in 1986, falling year-over-year all the way to 2008. “Oil from Alaska, the North Sea and Mex­ico have been very important additions to the world oil market,” he said in 1981, “but there are no major new sources likely to come onstream in the next few years.”

Couldn’t we say the same today of shale oil, oil sands and ultra-deepwater, all new sources of production, all clipped at the wellhead by Saudi’s whim? Well, maybe not shale, which may indeed be America’s deliverance.

Oil didn’t reach the $40 mark again until 2003. Now, $100 oil—last seen in June 2014—might be another 20 years away. Or maybe not.

Raymond James soothsayer Marshall Adkins in June this year begged the question, “Like $50 oil? You ain’t seen nothing yet,” and promptly raised his 2017 forecast to $80/bbl for WTI; $75 for 2018. It’s not $100, but it’s getting closer, sooner.

They say it’s a cyclical industry, and a lot of similarities resonate between then and now, 35 years apart. Let’s get together and compare notes in another 35. Happy birthday, Oil and Gas Investor.

For the best intel and access to the dealmakers, join us at our annual A&D Strategies and Opportunities conference Sept. 8 in Dallas, and for the popular A&D deal lab and shark tank held the day before. You can view the full agenda at ADStrategiesConference.com. Also, the following week, find out how operators are adapting to a lower price environment in the Eagle Ford Shale with new technologies and efficiencies at Hart Energy’s DUG Eagle Ford conference Sept. 12-14 in San Antonio. To learn more, visit DUGEagleFord.com.

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