As we careen through a presidential primary season that plays more like a reality TV show than a civilized vetting of who can best lead our nation and its place in a tumultuous world, nary a word is spoken of oil and gas.

The industry is in an epic battle for survival, simultaneously fighting depressed commodity prices, an overwhelming supply of Saudi oil, the destruction of the oilfield service industry and global competition for LNG. Meanwhile, the current administration has closed access to reserves off the East Coast in the next five-year plan, yet no one on the campaign trail—on either side—sees votes to be gained from energy talk.

In the words of former candidate Ben Carson, “Can someone just attack us, please?”

But the outcome of the presidential election does matter to our industry and its future, even if energy isn’t being discussed. Just ask the coal industry how it likes hope and change.

Thus it was intriguing to hear how political strategist and on-air pundit Karl Rove characterized the ongoing drama-filled election season in an exclusive speech at Hart Energy’s DUG Rockies conference in Denver last month. Rove summed up the election process to date as “one hell of a primary, and we’re just getting started.”

While all signs point to Republican Donald Trump facing Democrat Hillary Clinton in the November general election—unless there is a turnaround in voter momentum through the primaries—unique circumstances within each party could also scuttle these candidates’ aspirations. Rove made the surprising prognostication that neither of the current front-runners may be on the presidential ticket come November.

Of the Republicans’ broad field of candidates, it is likely that none of them—Trump included—will have a majority of delegates heading into the Republican National Convention in July in Cleveland. At the time of Rove’s speech, in mid-March, Trump had won just 34.9% of the primary vote.

“He’s winning with about a third of the vote,” Rove said, highlighting that two-thirds have voted against him. Trump would need to win 54% of all delegates going forward to have a majority, “and that’s going to be difficult to do.”

Such a scenario leads to a contested convention, in which multiple ballots might be necessary to select a candidate. And in the scrum of dealmaking on the floor, the abrasive Trump could lose his advantage, Rove suggested. In 1940, for example, businessman Wendell Willkie was in third place going into the convention but ultimately became the Republican candidate.

Rove believes Clinton is the clear Democratic nominee in spite of Bernie Sanders’ support at the polls. Even if Sanders were to pull off an upset with the populace, said Rove, the unique structure of the Democratic National Convention in the form of “superdelegates”—who are not beholden to vote in lock-step with primary results and represent about 20% of all Democrat delegates—could head off Sanders at the convention.

The superdelegates, who tend to be more establishment voters, “are not going to go for the goofy democratic socialist from Vermont,” Rove said.

But a wild card is in play that could cause Clinton to lose the superdelegate vote—what Rove calls “the FBI primary,” referring to the investigation related to her handling of classified emailed material. If Clinton is embroiled in a debilitating legal battle heading into the Philadelphia convention, then the superdelegates “are free to do whatever they want to do”—and it won’t be to vote in Sanders.

Instead, “they can settle on an alternative,” said Rove, postulating that either Joe Biden or John Kerry would rise to the top.

The probability is still that Trump and Clinton will face off in the general election, he said. But because each has historically low favorability ratings, “it’s going to be a race for the bottom. It’s going to be a brutal contest.”

When pushed on which candidates best represent the interests of the oil and gas industry, Rove was quick to respond: “Not Bernie; not her.” Trump, he said, is generally uninformed and will rely on advisors. Ohio’s John Kasich is the governor of an oil and gas state; likewise, if Texas’ Sen. Ted Cruz jilts the industry, “we’d have to kill him,” Rove said.

Regardless of who represents each party at the polls, Rove said the two candidates, whoever they are, will give it their all until they’re empty, and one of them has won.

“Then we’ll pick them up, dust them off, and we’ll give them the toughest job in the world facing big problems. God bless them for running.”

Comments