U.S. crude oil exports surged to an all-time high last week, contributing to another fall in stockpiles, driven by overseas demand due to the big discount for U.S. crude when compared with international benchmark Brent.

Crude inventories dropped 4.5 million barrels to 422.1 million barrels in the week ended July 22, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on July 27, compared with expectations for a 1 million-barrel drop.

The decline was in large part the result of a surge in crude exports to a record 4.5 million bbl/d in the latest week. Exports could continue to rise, thanks to a wide spread between the U.S. and international crude benchmarks, particularly as Europe has reduced imports from its top supplier, Russia, in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on that nation.

“We could see 5 million-plus barrels per day—we have not seen peak oil globally,” said Sean Strawbridge, CEO for the Port of Corpus Christi, which exports more than 2 million bbl/d.

The arbitrage, or spread between Brent and WTI crude futures in the U.S. has widened out to more than $9/bbl.

“International refiners will go to the United States to load up on U.S. crude oil, as long as the arb is so wide that it covers the cost of carry,” said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho.

U.S. crude production rebounded to 12.1 million bbl/d after two weeks of declines, rising 200,000 bbl/d in its biggest increase since December.

U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 3.3 million barrels on the week. After a couple of weeks of lackluster demand, gasoline product supplied by refiners rebounded, though overall gasoline demand is down 7% over the last four weeks when compared with the year-ago period.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 784,000 barrels.

Refinery crude runs fell by 292,000 bbl/d in the last week, the EIA said. Refinery utilization rates fell by 1.5 percentage points in the week to 92.2%.

Oil prices rose on the news. U.S. crude was up 2.3% to $97.15/bbl by 1:23 p.m. ET (1823 GMT) while Brent gained 1.6% to $106.08/bbl.

Comments