British multinational oil and gas firm BG Group believes the U.S. could become an exporter of between 60 million and 70 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG by 2025.

“U.S. exports will be a major contributor to supply growth, but so too will projects in western Canada and eastern Africa. All will need to be developed to meet customer demand in the high-growth LNG markets of Asia in this timeframe—and BG’s planned export projects in these countries are very well placed to be part of this supply,” Andrew Walker, vice president of BG’s global LNG division, said in a recent company statement.

BG Group cites two reasons why the global LNG market isn’t heading toward a period of oversupply.

“First, it is extremely unlikely that all of the announced U.S. projects will be built. As has been demonstrated in past supply-growth cycles, only those projects with established, well-capitalized developers with LNG experience tend to be built,” the company said.

“Second, demand for LNG is expected to remain strong. Industry experts estimate growth of around 5% per year until 2025, requiring the development of up to 150 mtpa of new LNG supply above that which is already under construction.”

Of nearly 30 LNG export projects that have been announced in response to U.S. shale gas discoveries, BG Group has taken an interest in two of the largest and most-advanced projects: Sabine Pass and Lake Charles.

Both are planned to produce and ship LNG before the end of the decade, the company noted, taking advantage of a widened Panama Canal that by the end of 2015 is expected to shave a week or more off voyages from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asian ports.

“The value drive of U.S. LNG exports is the spread between U.S. natural gas and global LNG prices,” Betsy Spomer, senior vice president of global business development at BG Group, was also quoted as saying in the report.

“Before entering into agreements to buy LNG from Sabine Pass and partner with Energy Transfer [Partners LP] on the development of Lake Charles, we took a careful look at project economics and projections of future gas and LNG prices. We believe the size of the U.S. natural gas resource and the liquidity of the U.S. natural gas market make these projects look good—now and into the future,” Spomer said.

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