U.S. natural gas futures gained around 2% on March 9 as near-record LNG exports caused utilities to pull more fuel from storage last week than expected and on forecasts for more heating demand over the next two weeks.

U.S. LNG exports have been strong because global oil, and gas prices have traded at or near record highs in recent weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, stoking energy supply concerns. Russia is the world’s second biggest producer of gas behind the United States.

After soaring to an all-time high over $106 per MMBtu on March 7, European gas futures collapsed 30% on March 9 and were down about 10% so far on March 10 as gas supplies stabilized with continued high flows from Russia and massive LNG imports from around the world. That supply stabilization prompted traders to take profits.

Before the Russian invasion began on Feb. 24, the U.S. worked with other countries to ensure that gas supplies, mostly from LNG, would keep flowing to Europe. Russia usually provides around 30% to 40% of Europe's gas, which totaled about 16.3 Bcf/d in 2021.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 124 Bcf of gas from storage during the week ended March 4.

That was higher than the 117-Bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 59 Bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 89 Bcf.

Last week’s withdrawal cut stockpiles to 1.519 Tcf, or 16% below the five-year average of 1.809 Tcf for this time of the year.

U.S. front-month gas futures rose 10.5 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $4.631 per MMBtu at 10:47 a.m. EST (1547 GMT).

U.S. gas futures remain shielded from record European prices because the United States has all the fuel it needs for domestic use and the country’s ability to export more LNG is limited by capacity constraints.

The U.S. is already producing LNG near full capacity, so no matter how high global gas prices rise, it would not be able to produce much more of the supercooled fuel any time soon.

Since U.S. LNG exports were already near maximum capacity, some analysts said soaring global energy prices would actually cause American gas prices to decline as U.S. drillers seek more oil supplies. That would boost the amount of associated gas that comes out of the ground with that oil.

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.4 Bcf/d in March from 92.5 Bcf/d in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 Bcf/d in December.

On a daily basis, gas output was on track to drop to 92.3 Bcf/d on March 10 as cold weather in some producing basins reduces output.

Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 112 Bcf/d this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv’s outlook on March 9.

The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.58 Bcf/d so far in March from 12.43 Bcf/d in February and a record 12.44 Bcf/d in January. The U.S. has the capacity to turn about 12.5 Bcf/d of gas into LNG. The rest of the fuel flowing to the facilities is used to operate the plants.

Editor’s note: This story was last updated at 2:28 p.m. CST March 10.