An “insider” look at this or that is one of the oldest dodges in the magazine business. It’s usually a promise of only-we-know information obtained from only-we-can-reach-them sources.

But not always. Sometimes an insider will reinforce something you may already know. You find it worth pondering anew because of the weight of the source.

The keynote address at CERA Week 2008, given by Abdallah S. Jum‘ah, Saudi Aramco president and chief executive officer, is such a case. An insider if ever there was one, Mr. Jum‘ah offered some thoughts on, as he put it, the future of global energy.

It is a big topic. But some aspects can be summarized whether you agree with them or not. Take, for example, supply. According to Mr. Jum‘ah, “…it is essential to consider the planet’s total endowment of liquid fuels. In other words, we have to look at both conventional oil and such non-conventional resources as condensate, natural gas liquids, extra heavy oil, bitumen and tar sands, oil shales — and even coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and bio-fuels.”

“Even if we leave aside the potential of coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and bio-fuels, the world’s total in-place endowment of conventional and non-conventional fuels ranges between 13 and 16 trillion bbl. To put that number in perspective, to date the world has consumed roughly 1.1 trillion bbl, or between 7 and 9% of the in-place endowment.” Of that, Saudi Aramco believes recoverable conventional and unconventional resources are ultimately at the high end of the range of from three to six trillion bbl often cited by analysts.

Mr. Jum‘ah noted that there are expectations for an unrealistically rapid development of alternative energy resources and points out that both the International Energy Agency and the United States Department of Energy predict that fossil fuel share of energy supplies will remain in the range of 82 to 87% by the year 2030.

According to Mr. Jum‘ah, “…a number of well-intentioned strategies call for a much more aggressive displacement of fossil fuels, despite major technological, economic, infrastructure and public acceptance hurdles remaining in the way of achieving such targets. That has led to considerable confusion over what is realistic when it comes to alternatives, and what the future call on alternatives and conventional sources will actually be. Such uncertainty clearly has negative implications for the vast investments required to expand supplies of fossil fuels.”

He arrived at his point: “Ladies and gentlemen, in my opinion the world simply cannot afford to leave massive quantities of oil, gas, and coal in the ground and move precipitously to unproven alternatives, while still hoping to satisfy future growth in global energy demand.”

Mr. Jum‘ah stressed that the global warming issue “…deserves our most serious attention.” At the same time he says we cannot afford to abandon fossil fuels. “Alternatives are simply not ready to shoulder the load, nor will they be in a position to do so anytime soon, given the time and effort needed for them to make a more substantial contribution to the world’s energy supplies.”

It is here that exhortations to oil companies to become “energy companies” collide with reality. If you’re uncomfortable with the idea of transitioning to windmill design, don’t worry. There’s a lot of work left to do just where you are.

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