It always amazes me how a country, a company or a person can be dramatically transformed based on outside opinions that may have nothing to do with their intrinsic value. The former Evil Empire is now angling for entry into NATO and the World Trade Organization, and Enron is scrambling to redeem its reputation. At this time last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin was relaxing, or as much as he could for a man who always looks tense, at George Bush's ranch in central Texas. Between the photo ops and the barbeque, they were talking about oil-count on it. In a show of solidarity with America, the one global power that can stop the terrorists, Putin offered to sell the U.S. some Russian oil if Middle Eastern supplies are jeopardized. But Putin has not cozied up to Bush merely for personal or diplomatic reasons. No. He is courting a big future customer. The Russian in- dustry has, after a decade of stumbling, turned itself around. In the former Soviet Union, production will rise by about 400,000 barrels a day this year and is projected to go up a like amount in 2002, according to Moncrief Willingham En- ergy Advisers LP in Houston. So it is no surprise that Putin is trying to secure market share down the road, as well as geopolitical security for his industry. And now Russia finds itself in a delicate po- sition between the West, with which it needs to align, and the Middle East, whose producers want it to curtail oil output. A huge geopolitical battle for market share is developing. Almost all of the nations that were carved from the former Soviet Union have meaningful oil and gas potential. Yet at the same time, most are a potential bed of Islamic and ethnic unrest that could delay much-needed oil and gas production, derail key pipeline construction and even disrupt entire economies. Care must be taken, for alternative oil sources are already declining-or about to do so-in Asia, the North Sea and Latin America. "We are shocked at the apparent lack of concern over geopolitical risk to world oil supply," says a new report by Moncrief Willingham. "Considering that the goal of the terrorists is to foment a West vs. Islam war, one has to be concerned. Since 18.6 million barrels a day come out of the Persian Gulf, and another 6 million a day come from other Muslin countries, we recommend investment focus on companies developing production in this country or this hemisphere." Today, the world uses about 76 million bar- rels a day and the estimated spare capacity is only 3 million a day-roughly the amount that Iraq can produce. "Should any disruption occur, we have the makings of a crisis...," the report concludes. We therefore applaud President Bush's order to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its in- tended capacity during the next two or three years. But that is just a small piece of the sup- ply puzzle. At press time, the members of the Organiza- tion of Petroleum Exporting Countries hesi- tated to fall on their swords in order to shore up the price of oil, which was down about a third since September. They said they would not cut their production by another 1.5 million barrels per day unless The Non-OPEC Three-Russia, Mexico and Norway-agreed to participate in such a cut as well. Russia said it was willing, but only by a token 30,000 barrels a day, setting up a game of chicken. In this decade, not only will we witness continued competition and conflict within OPEC, we will see it between OPEC and The Big Three, especially in this greater Caspian region. Let the games begin. The game is over for Enron Corp., however, and stunningly so. Enron is now assured of its place among the top two or three "grow like a rocket-and-melt down later" case studies at the Harvard Business School and other bastions of business knowledge. The big lesson here is that growth at any price, whether driven by greed and ego, fear or even arrogant smarts, cannot be sustained for long, especially if it is accomplished by means that push the envelope of what's legal, accurate and normal. Where was the board? Where was Andersen, Enron's auditor and paid consultant? Embarrassment, embarrassment. The collapse reminds me of the fate of Petro-Lewis, Graham Resources and Mesa Petroleum in the 1980s. All three were highly visible, high-growth E&P companies that dramatically changed from Wall Street darlings to Wall Street damned in a relatively short time. For some, it was high debt that brought them up short-but in Enron's case, it seems to have been clever maneuvering to avoid debt appearing on the balance sheet. And so, have a merry holiday in these trying times, and treasure that which is important-and it is not your stock options. We are very pleased to bring you a special insert titled Tribute that spotlights New York City. Photo editor Lowell Georgia took these images recently and over the past 20 years as we covered the hub of the energy finance world. Hart Publications and several oil companies contributed to this project; all proceeds will go to New York charities.

Comments