The seismic industry should soon enjoy a long growth period, according to Bob Peebler, president and chief executive officer of seismic-services firm Input/Output Inc. The worldwide gap between supply and demand is widening and the industry faces significant challenges in closing that gap, Peebler noted at an annual 3-D seismic symposium hosted in Denver recently by the Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists and the Denver Geophysical Society. "Each year, the decline rates of reservoirs in North America are increasing. For new gas wells drilled in 2005, the aggregate decline rate will be about 30%, and that rate has doubled over the last 12 years." In addition, more money is needed today than in the past: finding and development costs have jumped 12% per year since 1997. Moreover, the increasing cash flows generated from E&P operations are not being reinvested at a proportional rate-cash flows have effectively doubled since 1999, but capital expenditures have remained flat. Instead of putting money into the ground, companies have been buying back their stock. "The industry spent as much last year in repurchasing its stock as it spent in exploration." For 2005, E&P capex is expected to grow, but only between 8% and 10%. And, the world's idle production capacity (as a percentage of demand) has been shrinking, to just 2% in mid-2004, down from nearly 8% in 2002. "Obviously, we have a problem, and one of the most important ways to address that problem is to bring in technology that will make us more efficient at finding and developing reservoirs." Traditional seismic is in its twilight, Peebler believes. 3-D seismic has delivered incredible value, but the returns on the nearly 30-year-old technology are diminishing. What the industry needs are some innovative and exciting tools. Geophysicists are agitating for improved data capture, higher fidelity results and better methods to strip noise from datasets. And, they want fresh information to probe such popular resource plays as tight gas sands and black shales. "Full-wave seismic will be the next growth area in geophysics," said Peebler. "We are at the beginning of a new era of seismic technology that is as significant as the introduction of 3-D." Full-wave seismic brings the digital revolution to geophysics. It delivers a complete spectrum of seismic information, as it records shear-wave data in addition to the familiar compressional-wave data. It measures true ground motion and makes use of the entire seismic signal. This generation of seismic delivers higher resolution and more accurate subsurface images than conventional 3-D, and is particularly effective in discerning fluid types, lithologies and reservoir connectivity. Full-wave seismic works well in areas with complex velocity fields, beneath such surfaces as permafrost, deserts, marshes and volcanic deposits, and is valuable for imaging in high ambient-noise situations, such as existing fields. Certainly, this latest permutation of geophysical technology seems particularly applicable to mature areas such as onshore North America. But, the increased costs of full-wave surveys are a barrier. They require high-fidelity multicomponent receivers, point sources and point receivers, wide-azimuth and long-offset survey designs, and adequate sampling of both compressional and converted shear-wave domains. Nonetheless, improved acquisition efficiencies can offset some of the added expense. Surveys using single-point recorders require substantially less gear, and the equipment is much easier to place in the field. "On land, about 90% of the dollars spent on a seismic survey are tied to logistical costs. We believe that digital technology can make the field operations much more efficient, and we can transfer those dollars into a better end-product." Today, full-wave seismic stands about where 3-D did in 1985-86. "In 1981, 98% of the data being collected was 2-D. In the early 1980s, people believed that 3-D was pretty much a niche technology." As understanding grew, along with the industry's ability to process and interpret it, 3-D mushroomed. Beginning in the mid-1980s, the geophysical sector enjoyed a robust boom that lasted for nearly a decade. Now another wave of seismic is upon us: "Within five years, I believe that a third of all surveys on land will be full-wave and we'll see a dramatic expansion in full-wave surveys on the seabed," Peebler said. "We are at the foot of the full-wave explosion."

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