Gas prices are expected to remain elevated until 2025 while floating LNG options are forecast to double, according to a new report from Welligence Energy Analytics.

“LNG is increasingly floating towards a greener, but more supply-concentrated, 2030. FLNG [floating LNG] and FSRUs [floating storage regasification units] are accelerating both production and imports, while CCS is progressively adopted for managing emissions,” Welligence Head of Asia and LNG Marc Howson said July 6 in a press release, citing details from the company’s LNG Outlook to 2030 report.

“Meanwhile, buyers are evaluating quickening the growth of alternative LNG supply frontiers, including East Africa and western Mexico,” Howson said.

Putin’s war on Ukraine resulted in a spike in LNG demand and prices in Europe as the region scrambled to replace reduced piped-gas volumes from Russia. While South Asia was priced out of the LNG market for most of 2022, countries in the region are now more focused on energy security and increasingly contemplating markets where energy supply is abundant and relatively unrestrained.

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Growing competition in the LNG space from Asian buyers is expected to keep gas prices elevated until 2025 and Welligence expects them to average over $13/MMbtu through mid-decade.

LNG importers are looking to manage supply risks due to continued piped-gas shortfalls of Russian shipments to Europe and increasingly seeking alternatives to LNG from Qatar and the U.S. Gulf Coast, the market and intelligence company said in the release.

Output from FLNG and FSRUs is expected to double by 2025 compared to 2021. This will provide quicker and lower-capex supply, primarily from Sub-Saharan Africa, Welligence said.

FSRU capacity is rising to support European supply security and expand LNG markets, presently in Asia, the company said.

“LNG players are adopting technologies, particularly CCS/CCUS, to manage their environmental impact,” Welligence said. “The race is on to develop southeast Asia’s first LNG-related CCS project, with Malaysia’s Kasawari and Indonesia’s Vorwata projects both targeting startups around 2027.”

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