The price of Brent crude ended the week at $87.00 after closing the previous week at $85.43. The price of WTI ended the week at $80.63 after closing the previous week at $80.63. The price of DME Oman crude ended the week at $87.28 after closing the previous week at $85.07.
We have been forecasting that oil prices would increase with tightening supply/demand conditions coupled with increasing geopolitical risks. With last week’s increase, oil prices have reached the highest level since late October 2023.
Last week, we updated our short-term outlook (through 2025) for the crude oil markets. We are expecting that the fundamentals will remain supportive of oil prices with oil demand increasing during this period. We are also expecting that OPEC+ will continue to manage supply in a proactive manner, which will help establish a floor under oil prices. At the same time, we are expecting non-OPEC supply growth to be more modest during 2024 and 2025 than seen in 2023. There are risks to the forecast – especially with respect to the macro-level factors, including the possibility of an economic downturn, as well as geopolitical developments that could spin out of control.
For a complete forecast of refined products and prices, please refer to our Short-term Outlook.
About the Author: John E. Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors, is responsible for managing the research and consulting business worldwide. Prior to joining Stratas Advisors, Paisie was a partner with PFC Energy, a strategic consultancy based in Washington, D.C., where he led a global practice focused on helping clients (including IOCs, NOC, independent oil companies and governments) to understand the future market environment and competitive landscape, set an appropriate strategic direction and implement strategic initiatives. He worked more than eight years with IBM Consulting (formerly PriceWaterhouseCoopers, PwC Consulting) as an associate partner in the strategic change practice focused on the energy sector while residing in Houston, Singapore, Beijing and London.
Recommended Reading
Mexico Pacific Working with Financial Advisers to Secure Saguaro LNG I FID
2024-10-23 - Mexico Pacific is working with MUFG, Santander and JP Morgan to arrange the financing needed to support FID and the anchor phase of Saguaro Energía LNG.
US Energy Secretary Nominee Chris Wright Champions Energy at DUG GAS
2024-11-19 - President-elect Donald Trump's energy secretary nominee Chris Wright championed energy's role in bettering human lives earlier this year on stage at Hart Energy’s DUG GAS Conference and Expo.
Citgo Auction in Jeopardy as Venezuela Bondholders Pursue Parallel Claims
2024-10-11 - The court cases have increased uncertainty over which company is best positioned to take over the seventh-largest U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum.
Midstream M&A Adjusts After E&Ps’ Rampant Permian Consolidation
2024-10-18 - Scott Brown, CEO of the Midland Basin’s Canes Midstream, said he believes the Permian Basin still has plenty of runway for growth and development.
CEO: Breakwall Providing Capital as RBLs ‘Materially’ Decrease
2024-10-09 - Breakwall Capital is stepping in to bridge the gap from the historic days of reserve-based lending, Breakwall Managing Partner and co-CEO Jamie Brodsky said at Hart Energy's Energy Capital Conference in Dallas.
Comments
Add new comment
This conversation is moderated according to Hart Energy community rules. Please read the rules before joining the discussion. If you’re experiencing any technical problems, please contact our customer care team.