In the week since our last edition of What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent prices pushed higher to average above $70/bbl on a weekly basis.

For the upcoming week, Stratas Advisors expect Brent prices to pull back and average $69/bbl. This week the analysts expect the West Texas Intermdiate-Brent differential to average $4/bbl, after a substantial fall last week.

Geopolitical: Negative

Geopolitics will be a negative factor in the week ahead. Outside of the perennial issues around Venezuela the geopolitical landscape remains quiet, which Stratas Advisors believe will put some pressure on prices.

Dollar: Positive

The dollar continues to fall, with the relationship between crude and the dollar beginning to strengthen. Thus, Stratas analysts see this as a positive factor for crude prices.

Trader Sentiment: Positive

Record long positions are reflecting positive trader sentiment, despite the risk of a correction in such overbought territory.

Supply: Negative

A bump of 12 rigs last week pushed the U.S. to record production levels, making this a negative factor this week.

Demand: Neutral

Demand in the U.S. remains volatile due to weather concerns. This is not likely to move the market substantially and remains a neutral factor.

Refining: Positive

Refining margins around the world strengthened last week, making this variable a positive factor.

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