What's Affecting Oil Prices This Week? (March 31, 2025)

The price of Brent crude reached $73.34 on Thursday before ending the week at $72.54 after closing the previous week at $72.11. The price of WTI ended the week at $69.04 after closing the previous week at $68.30. The price of DME Oman crude ended the week at $75.01.

At the beginning of last week, we expressed the view that oil prices would continue to move higher, and the price of Brent crude could test $73 with support coming from members of OPEC+ reaching an agreement to address previous oversupply, coupled with the Trump Administration placing new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports to China. Additional support was expected from demand starting to pick up with the northern hemisphere moving into the warmer months. The price of Brent crude did test $73 but prices dropped at the end of the week, in part, because of economic concerns stemming from President Trump announcing tariffs on all vehicles manufactured outside of the U.S.

For the upcoming week, we think the price of Brent crude will move sideways and struggle to go higher for the following reasons:

• There are concerns and uncertainties about the impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration – and the possibility of retaliation – which will create more economic hardship for all parties. Additionally, economic news continues to be mixed. While the recently released official PMIs for China indicate that China’s economy is picking up some momentum, employment still looks weak. Meanwhile, inflation is still lingering in the U.S. The core (excluding food and energy) personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up in March with a 0.4% increase from February, which is the largest increase since January 2024. From an annual basis the inflation rate is 2.8%. Including food and energy, the PCE increased by 0.3% for the month and 2.5% from a year ago.
• Countering concerns about economic growth and oil demand is the threat of secondary sanctions of 25% to 50% tariffs on those importing Russia oil, if a ceasefire deal is not reached and Trump views the failure the fault of Russia. This threat follows the Trump Administration placing sanctions on Iran’s and Venezuela’s oil exports. While the ultimate effectiveness of the sanctions is in doubt, the sanctions add another layer of uncertainty to the oil supply, which provides some support for oil prices.
• On the other hand, while members of OPEC+ have reached an agreement to address previous oversupply, OPEC+ is scheduled to start the process of unwinding previous supply cuts. Although the initial volumes will be relatively minor, OPEC+ is sitting on a spare capacity of more than 5 MMbbl/d.

Oil traders continue to be bearish. Net long positions of WTI are now 64% lower in comparison to Jan. 21 of this year when the price of WTI was $75.89 after reducing their net long positions for the second consecutive week.

For a complete forecast of crude oil and refined products and other energy-related fundamentals and prices, please refer to our Short-term Outlook.

About the Author: John E. Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors, is responsible for managing the research and consulting business worldwide. Prior to joining Stratas Advisors, Paisie was a partner with PFC Energy, a strategic consultancy based in Washington, D.C., where he led a global practice focused on helping clients (including IOCs, NOC, independent oil companies and governments) to understand the future market environment and competitive landscape, set an appropriate strategic direction and implement strategic initiatives. He worked more than eight years with IBM Consulting (formerly PriceWaterhouseCoopers, PwC Consulting) as an associate partner in the strategic change practice focused on the energy sector while residing in Houston, Singapore, Beijing and London.