In the week since our last edition of What’s Affecting Oil Prices, Brent fell $2.28/bbl last week to average $80.26/bbl. WTI fell $2.70/bbl to average $70.24/bbl. WTI has now returned to its pre-rally level, but Brent is still several dollars off and could continue to decline next week. We expect Brent will fall farther next week as tension between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. lessens. We expect Brent will average $78/bbl next week.

As the November 4 deadline for stopping Iranian shipments looms, markets will be closely watching to see if the State Department approves any waivers. Several Asian consumers including India have reportedly applied for waivers. Another week of large crude builds in the U.S. could cause prices to fall even faster, especially if couple with a build in refined products.

Geopolitical: Neutral

Geopolitics will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have lessened, and even at their peak were unable to overcome sentiment from large crude builds in the U.S.

Dollar: Neutral

The dollar will be a neutral factor in the week ahead.

Trader Sentiment: Negative

Trader sentiment will be a negative factor in the week ahead, with net longs for both Brent and WTI backing off sharply as supply fears abate.

Supply: Neutral

Supply will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. As the Nov. 4 deadline for stopping Iranian shipments looms, markets will be closely watching to see if the State Department approves any waivers. Several Asian consumers including India have reportedly applied for waivers.

Demand: Neutral

Demand will be a neutral factor in the week ahead. Another week of large crude builds in the U.S. could cause prices to fall even faster, especially if couple with a build in refined products.

Refining: Negative

Refining will be a negative factor in the week ahead.

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