I’ve always found it fascinating how suddenly a “hot” topic crops up everywhere (in modern parlance, it’s trending). Author Malcolm Gladwell explained the phenomenon in his page-turner, the bestseller “The Tipping Point.” The topic seemingly emerges from nowhere, then swirls around from think tanks and universities to the lay media, then to industry media, finally onto conference agendas and into government reports—and then it fades away.

This past spring, that topic has been peak oil demand.

It may have gotten new impetus as of press time because major announcements were made about the future of automobiles and the fuels that make mobility possible. This might affect the oil and gas industry longer term, say in 20 years.

Moving to electric vehicles (EVs) is the key theme, one that has some experts such as at Stanford University predicting we’ll soon see a real sea change, the beginning of the long, slow phase-out of fossil fuels used to power the internal combustion engine since the days of Henry Ford and John D. Rockefeller. Stanford said it might happen in less than a decade, signaling the end—or at least the transformation—of two American powerhouses, Big Oil and Big Auto.

But if we’re all supposed to migrate to electric cars with batteries that need to be recharged, what will it take to generate the necessary electricity that implies—and as more motorists drive in the first place? If coal is being phased out, then oil, that leaves wind and solar for power generation—but probably on not-enough scale to meet electric demand. This could be good news for U.S. natural gas and LNG exports to Europe and India, for powering their EVs.

In July, Volvo boldly thrust a stake in the sand, declaring that as of January 2019 it will no longer manufacture diesel autos; all its cars will be electrics or hybrids, and it hopes to sell 1 million EVs by 2025. Beyond the European Union’s push for a greener society and its adherence to the Paris climate accord, other factors likely played a big role here: the VW emissions scandal has been a cautionary tale. Also, since 2010, Volvo has been owned by a Chinese automaker. China’s push to reduce air pollution has grown more urgent, and it already boasts the largest global market for EV sales.

New French President Emmanuel Macron also announced in July his vision to ban all conventional gasoline and diesel vehicle sales in France by 2040. But as Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, who tracks EV sales data, wrote, “Let’s see it get to 5% EV share first.” France’s EV share was just 1.7% in 2016, he said. And he asked a good question: What happens if a bon homme buys a traditional fossil-fuel car in another EU country and drives it across the border, to “le parking” in France?

Molchanov tracks global and U.S. EV sales data, as reported by the Electric Drive Transportation Association. In his analysis, he aggregates sales numbers for pure-electric cars and plug-in hybrids. He noted that EV sales are increasing in the U.S.—but after seven years, EVs still make up only 1% of total domestic auto sales and about 1.5% of global sales.

In some countries, however, EV adoption is much higher. In Norway, it is 35%. But less than 1% of new car registrations throughout the EU last year were for pure electrics. Norway, ironically one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers yet also one of its greenest societies, reported goal is to reach a 100% EV-hybrid-hydrogen sales target by 2025.

For 2016, such sales in China totaled 135,000 vehicles. For the U.S. in first-half 2017, the total was 87,000. Although the U.S. numbers seem small in the grand scheme of things, sales growth through that date was up 36% year-over-year. In the U.S. since 2011, when EV sales (not hybrids) were basically zero, they have averaged 10,000 to 15,000 a year. If counting both EVs and hybrids, total sales peaked in 2014 when oil was $100 and gasoline above $3.

So, are these EV sales trends worth noting or not? They are, but let’s not panic just yet. If you look at data from the Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency, OPEC or BP Plc’s annual energy statistics for the world, petroleum demand (oil and products) has risen pretty consistently for more than 30 years even as cars have gotten much more fuel-efficient, and that will continue.

Stratas Advisors’ analyst Jeff Quigley, who attended the May OPEC meeting, tells us that in the end, the greater existential threat to OPEC is not rising U.S. shale output, but rather, long-term demand trends. It appears that consumer adoption of EVs and more energy efficiency in autos and buildings may be happening faster than once predicted, but “peak-demand concerns risk being overstated now,” he said.

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