
(Source: HartEnergy.com; Ainul muttaqin, A-spring, Wichaiwish/Shutterstock.com)
John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
LONDON—U.S. petroleum inventories are gradually becoming less bloated as crude imports remain low and refiners limit fuel production, but the slow pace of the drawdown underscores the fragility of oil market rebalancing.
Total stocks of crude oil and products fell last week, the fifth decline in six weeks, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
With a fall of 5 million barrels (MMbbl) last week total stocks are now down by 23 MMbbl from the record 2.11 billion barrels at the start of July.
In line with previous weeks, inventory draws were again led by crude (-4 MMbbl) and gasoline (-3 MMbbl) while distillate fuel oil and jet fuel stocks were unchanged and there were small builds in other products.
Crude stocks are still 4% above the five-year seasonal average, but that is an improvement on the surplus of almost 6% in the middle of July.
Gasoline stocks are 7% above average (but down from 12% in mid-April) and distillate stocks are 24% above average (down from 29% at the start of June).
Fuel consumption remains far below normal, but by restricting crude processing, refiners are gradually working off excess stocks.
The total volume of petroleum products supplied to the domestic market has been 12% below the five-year average over the past four weeks. Refinery crude processing, meanwhile, has been 15% below average.
Despite restricted crude processing, crude stocks have continued to fall, partly owing to the unusually slow rate of imports, especially from Saudi Arabia.
Oil inventories are slowly normalizing, but progress has been slower than expected at the end of the second quarter, principally because of the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumption.
In its latest assessment, published on Aug. 19, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ drew attention to the oil market’s “fragility,” especially on the consumption side.
If consumption continues to recover more slowly than originally projected, OPEC+ will eventually have to revise its production schedule to cut output deeper for longer.
Recommended Reading
Matador Touts Cotton Valley ‘Gas Bank’ Reserves as Prices Increase
2025-02-21 - Matador Resources focuses most of its efforts on the Permian’s Delaware Basin today. But the company still has vast untapped natural gas resources in Louisiana’s prolific Cotton Valley play, where it could look to drill as commodity prices increase.
Antero Stock Up 90% YoY as NatGas, NGL Markets Improve
2025-02-14 - As the outlook for U.S. natural gas improves, investors are hot on gas-weighted stocks—in particular, Appalachia’s Antero Resources.
BP’s Eagle Ford Refracs Delivering EUR Uplift, ‘Triple-Digit’ Returns
2025-02-14 - BP’s shale segment, BPX Energy, is seeing EUR uplifts from Eagle Ford refracs “we didn’t really predict in shale,” CEO Murray Auchincloss told investors in fourth-quarter earnings.
Aethon: Haynesville E&Ps Hesitate to Drill Without Sustained $5 NatGas Prices
2025-03-12 - Operators are looking to the Haynesville to fill rising natural gas demand for U.S. LNG exports. Haynesville E&P Aethon Energy says producers need sustained higher prices to step up drilling.
Shale Consolidation Aftermath: The Field Narrows
2025-01-13 - Widespread consolidation has reshaped the list of top public producers, says Enverus CEO Manuj Nikhanj.