The Dow Jones industrial average lost 14.5% of its value in the first half of this year— its worst start since 1970. "We are in the same trend as that started late last year," says a savvy oil executive. "The recent rally never had the aspects of a true reversal (explosion of upside volume and up versus down issues). The trend is still down. First signs of reversal will be when the market does not respond to bad news. This is because all potential sellers are already out." Meanwhile, railroads ship everything from grain to coal and have seen their stocks rise 25.9% this year. That sector may be another safe bet, much like energy and oilfield service stocks seem to be.