On average, Stratas Advisors predicts that supply will be at a deficit of 840,000 bbl/d during 2024.
Increased geopolitical risk and the shift from fossil fuels to renewables are pulling the world in different directions, and the U.S. will be called to play a significant role in the global tug of war.
Stratas Advisors expects oil prices to move higher in the middle of the year, but for the upcoming week, there is no impetus for prices to raise.
Stratas Advisors' John Paisie forecasts the price of Brent crude to increase during the second and third quarters of this year and move toward $90/bbl.
For the upcoming week, Stratas Advisors expect the price of Brent will move sideways and will struggle to break through $85.
Rising geopolitical tensions due to the Israel-Hamas conflict and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have supported oil prices in 2024, although concern about economic growth has weighed.
The Biden administration’s decision to pause permitting of LNG projects has damaged the U.S.’ reputation in ways impossible to calculate.
Stratas Advisors forecast that global crude production will be essentially unchanged from 2023, which means that demand growth in 2024 will outpace supply growth.
Industry leaders worry that the DOE’s suspension of approvals for LNG projects will persuade global customers to seek other suppliers, wreaking havoc on energy security.
Stratas Advisors says the U.S.’ response (so far) to the recent attack on U.S. troops has been measured without direct confrontation of Iran, which reduces the possibility of oil flows being disrupted.