Tropical Storm Helene was expected to turn eastward on its track through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, increasing the threat of high winds and heavy rains to Cuba and Florida but lessened the risk to U.S. offshore oil production, forecasters said on Sept. 24..

The storm was moving through the Caribbean and expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane by Sept. 25, potentially rising to a major hurricane with 115 mph (184 kph) winds on Sept. 26, the National Hurricane Center said.

Its current track takes it along the west coast of Florida toward a landfall on the state's panhandle later this week. That path lessens the risk to oil producing regions in the central Gulf of Mexico, meteorologists said. The region accounts for 15% of U.S. oil and 2% of natural gas production.

Offshore producers have shut-in 16% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and 11% of natural gas output. The numbers represent some 284,000 bbl/d of crude and 208 MMcf/d of gas. Four platforms were reported as evacuated and two rigs were moved out of the storm's path, the offshore regulator said on Sept. 24.

The U.S. Coast Guard on Sept. 24 began imposing restrictions for vessel navigation at portions of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and some ports, including Mobile in Alabama, and Panama City, Pensacola and St. Joe in Florida, according to shipping notices.

The ports of Gulfport, Pascagoula and Tombigbee remained open to vessel navigation on Sept. 24, according to the Coast Guard.

"For the central Gulf this is a low- to medium-risk type situation because of the eastern track of the system," said DTN meteorologist Kevin Mahoney. But he added, "this is a very rapidly developing system," with a potentially large wind field.

Shell, the first Gulf of Mexico producer to shut in production this week, said it was restoring output at a platform that is about 200 miles (320 km) southwest of New Orleans.

"With a shift in forecast track, we are beginning the process of restoring production at Stones," the oil major said. Its output at another platform further east in the Gulf, called Appomattox, continues to be curtailed, it said.

Other oil producers evacuated offshore workers and scaled back operations as NHC forecasters called for the second major hurricane in two weeks to appear in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Besides Shell, producers BP, Chevron, and Equinor have withdrawn some offshore staff, and several have paused some oil and gas production ahead of the storm's arrival.

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