Wildfires in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) have forced shale producers to temporarily shut-in about 240,000 boe/d of production across northwestern Alberta, according to Rystad Energy.

As of May 16, production shut-ins have primarily been limited to the Montney and Duvernay plays, Thomas Liles, Rystad vice president of upstream research, said May 17 in a special report.

canada fires table
Alberta wildfires by operator and region. (Source: Rystad)

“Although in reality, the impact is likely in excess of 300,000 boe/d, if not higher,” Liles said.

In addition to lingering out-of-control wildfires in west central and northwestern Alberta, Rystad estimates a good amount of production is at risk according to current wildfire danger ratings.

“Nearly 2.7 MMbbl/d of oil sands production in northeastern Alberta [is] in ‘very high’ or ‘extreme’ wildfire danger rating zones, posing yet another risk to Western Canadian supply should conflagrations extend beyond their current areas,” Liles said in the report.

Of the 2.7 MMbbl/d, approximately 60% is currently subject to extreme wildfire danger levels, while the remaining 40% is subject to very high danger levels, according to Rystad.

wildfire danger chart
Estimated May 2023 oil sands output by project and wildfire danger rating. (Source: Rystad)
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