DON’T GET OUT OF WHACK

For most U.S. producers, the New Year is starting off on a bright note. Oil exports are allowed. Trump, as the new president, will try to roll back onerous regulations and/or taxes. Commodity prices, oil and gas equities and rig counts have been rising.

By now, you’ve read a lot of commentary about the deal between OPEC and other producers such as Russia to cut oil output beginning this January. This should be what it takes to balance the global supply-demand equation—but it could backfire if high oil prices encourage U.S. producers to drill too much too soon, warns Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources Inc.

“One of OPEC’s greatest fears is that we will go out and hire all these rigs and start up again,” Hamm told me recently. “They know they have to make believers out of us, so we can expect—and should expect—them to act [if U.S. production increases again].” Hamm has frequently warned about this via various media outlets in order to get his message across.

“We need to make sure supply and demand don’t get out of whack again,” Hamm told me. “Number one is not getting out in front of our skis and outspending cash flow. Number two is not taking on debt. That’s what people did in 2012 and 2013.

“I’m glad they made a deal,” he said. “I think it will take some of the lumpiness out going forward and will help producers and consumers. But producers need to be fore-warned or they’ll get left out on a limb and won’t have the oil price to justify it.

“Don’t do everything just because you can, or a second day of reckoning could come. If we are disciplined here in the U.S., I think that will make a heck of a difference with OPEC.”

Continental, one of the largest oil producers in the U.S., is focusing on its Scoop/Stack play in Oklahoma and has started completing some of its DUCs in the Bakken play as well. Recent enhanced completions have set company records in both plays.

He said he was optimistic that the oil production cuts will hold and that OPEC has learned its lesson, but at the same time, he sounded a strong cautionary note. We, too, must heed the lessons of the downturn.

He doesn’t think we’ll see $100 oil again for a long time, although he does think OPEC will try to maintain a price band of $55 to $65 per barrel, based on the market intelligence he said he has received.

Hamm watches the supply-demand equation closely. On prices, the first aspect Hamm cited was that the oil price was already being held artificially low, in his analysis, primarily by the Saudis. The kingdom said it would not cut production unless other OPEC member nations did as well. They would not go it alone. “That was a pretty big club they brought to the game,” he said.

The $45 price seen before November’s OPEC meeting had been depressed by Saudi rhetoric and by the amount of increased OPEC production hitting the market. But Hamm said the market is starting to right itself now.

“Continental [Resources Inc.]’s fundamentals research shows that inventories have been pulled down consistently, so basically the price should have been around $60, just with what was happening with inventories, if they [OPEC] had not been manipulating the market,” Hamm said.

Now that OPEC has pledged to cut production in 2017, the market should balance and prices should revert to the high $50s or close to $60, he said. We spoke just before the weekend deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia to cement that non-OPEC nations would join in making cuts.

Hamm said he thinks consumers and producers should recognize we can have economic gasoline prices and supply the market well, without “getting carried away.”

Demand, the other side of the equation, could rise, Hamm said. “We have so much pent-up potential in this country. World demand could go up 1.3 million barrels per day, but we think it’s possible and even probable that it could go up by 2 million barrels per day, so we’d certainly have our share of that. Everybody will want more market share and that includes us.”

The bottom line question: Has OPEC saved U.S. producers? No, Hamm insisted. Instead, U.S. producers have saved themselves with the tremendous efficiencies they’ve gained during the past two years. “Continental can produce twice the barrels now with the same dollars as we spent in 2014. OPEC caused that.”

So now, let’s go forward in 2017 in a careful, measured way, keeping close the lessons learned. That means not outspending cash flow. It means hedging prices. It means preserving the efficiencies gained though better completions. If the Trump administration changes or eliminates some regulations, let’s drill, complete and produce as if environmental protection is the main goal. It’s all up and to the right from here.

Leslie Haines can be reached at lhaines@hartenergy.com.