?An unprecedented bubble of new LNG production is less than a year away, says Steve Johnson, president, Waterborne Energy Inc. The Houston-based consulting group specializes in LNG markets. The dynamics of the global LNG market are about to change, he says: “Ten new trains will be producing LNG, most well before the end of 2009.”


When all of the new trains come online, a staggering 222 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per month of nameplate capacity will be introduced into the global market.


The result? A surge in U.S. imports of LNG is likely.


The timings of four trains in particular bear watching: in Qatar, Qatargas’ Megatrain 4 and RasGas’ Train 6 are scheduled to start making LNG in February and March 2009, respectively. Indonesia’s Tangguh Train 1 is projected to be ready at the close of this year, and Russia’s Sakhalin Train 1 should be online in March 2009. Additionally, Nigeria’s Train 6, which is already fully commissioned, should resolve its upstream supply issues in the next few months.


“Given the rather abysmal track record of liquefaction project delays, none of the dates are set it stone, but there is tremendous incentive and pressure to commission these facilities,” says Johnson.


If projections hold true, 101 Bcf per month could be pumped into world markets by the close of March 2009, in time to have a significant impact on 2009 import levels in the U.S. It’s possible that LNG volumes could surge to more than 900 Bcf next year.
—Peggy Williams

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