The week after OPEC relented on its two-year effort to flood the world markets with crude and agreed in late November to cut back on production, the U.S. land rig count lurched forward by a whopping 27 rigs, the largest week-over-week jump in rig count since April 2014. Oil surged by 9% into the low $50s per barrel (bbl) on the news.

Interestingly, this is about the same place the industry was at this time last year before the bot-tom fell out from under the price of oil, which careened downward below $30, and all but 400 rigs packed it up and went to the yards to await better economic days.

But this time it feels different. This time it feels like we’re on the way up rather than the way down.

Not that the price of oil wouldn’t have balanced without OPEC’s intervention; it had indeed already stabilized and inventories were working down. But a cap on production by the dysfunctional family of oil exporting countries is certainly welcome, accelerating market balance and setting a higher floor on price. Good news.

Does this mean U.S. producers will put the pedal to the metal and rev into high gear? Wells Fargo analyst David Tameron thinks so. The OPEC cut “emboldens management teams to ramp production,” he predicted, and those previously devising 2017 budgets against $50 oil now are armed with “more justification to get aggressive.” At the time of its early December report, Wells Fargo estimated budgets to reflect a 40% year-over-year increase on a $57/bbl price deck.

Stifel analyst Michael Scialla pegs the for-ward price of oil at $55, upon which U.S. producers are prognosticated to set record pro-duction levels. “If prices continue to firm,” he said, “U.S. supply could grow to an all-time high of 10.4 million barrels per day in 2018. U.S. growth of this magnitude could cap prices at $60.”

This growth prediction is bolstered by improved well economics supported by lower costs and greater well productivity—as well as improved balance sheets overall.

Further, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Neal Dingmann sees producers getting active on a number of fronts with the new macro environment, including hedging to protect cash flows. Strong single well economics of 50% plus at $50 oil motivate E&Ps to lock in a sure thing, which should lock in a higher rig count domestically as well.

“The increased drilling activity … is likely to cause a number of U.S. E&Ps to begin to raise recent capital budget spending plans,” he said in a December report.

With all this positive tailwind behind American producers, what could possibly go wrong?

Mike Kelly of Seaport Global Securities says the industry is faced with a conundrum going into 2017. On the one hand, “we’re staring at the best near-term oil macro outlook we’ve seen in seven years,” with a crude price that could push past $60/bbl. But a pending onslaught of U.S. drilling activity combined with “staggering efficiency and productivity gains” leads him to believe fiscal-year 2017’s bullish outlook is a major head fake.

“Our model projects that if U.S. producers are left to their own devices and double the rig count between now and 2020 (our basin-specific, company-by-company projections show this is indeed the plan), annual production growth is set to eclipse 2 million barrels per day as early as 2019.” That, of course, would create a supply glut and downward pressure on prices—again.

So what’s good news now could turn into too much of a good thing later, unless U.S. producers stay disciplined and employ more measured growth plans. The recovery is here. Let’s proceed in an orderly fashion.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Oil and Gas Investor’s long-time managing editor and treasured colleague Susan Klann has retired. For more than 16 years including two tours of duty—beginning first in 1988 and again in 2008—Susan has shepherded OGI through boom and bust cycles, through thick issues and thin, with a steady and unwavering hand. She has kept the editorial staff in line and on deadline through a great combination of gentle reminders, not-so-gentle prodding and a healthy fear of “the wrath of Klann.”

The job often involves long hours under unrelenting deadlines, yet she always made sure that OGI content achieved the level of excellence we strive for. In addition to her editing role, Susan has also contributed her own bylines to the magazine, and you might also know her from her moderating appearances at Hart Energy conferences.

We’ll miss Susan’s guidance as we push forward, although we hope to keep her byline in the magazine periodically via freelancing. Otherwise, it’s my understanding that she plans to spend her retirement with a fly rod wooing trout in a crisp Colorado stream. With no deadlines except sunset.

Comments