?Canadian gas exports to the U.S. are on a decline that will get steeper between now and 2015, according to a report by Ziff Energy Group.


“Western Canadian gas-production decline, combined with growing gas requirements for oil-sands production, and increasing demand for gas-fired power generation, most notably in Ontario, conspire to reduce natural gas available for export to the United States,” says Ziff Energy manager of gas services Cameron Gingrich and lead author of the study.


Canadian exports to the U.S. are about 9 billion cubic feet per day now, says Bill Gwozd, vice president of gas services at Ziff Energy.


“This figure will continue to slide and become critical by 2015 to 2020,” Gwozd says. By 2010, exports will be down 20% to 8.5 billion and by 2015 that figure drops to 6 billion.


“Consumers in the U.S. will start feeling the pain by 2015,” Gwozd says. “By 2020, if the Alaskan pipeline does not arrive, imports from Canada will be around 2 billion per day. By that time, Canada will have just barely enough to take care of itself.”


More of Canada’s gas reserves will be going to domestic projects, according to Gingrich. Gwozd adds that Canadian reserves, particularly in the west, have been declining.


That, coupled with the growing oil-sands projects in Alberta and internal use, all add up to less gas going to the U.S., he says. Salvation for the U.S. consumers who now count on Canadian gas will come in the form of the Alaskan pipeline, which is expected to bring stranded North Slope gas to the Lower 48.


“If that project is delayed by a year or even six months, 2015 to 2020 looks grim for U.S. consumers,” he says. There is talk of salvation coming in the form of increased gas production from Eastern Canada.


“Unfortunately, that hope has fizzled due to a lack of commercial success,” Gwozd says. “For those in the U.S. Northeast counting on a Canadian ace to keep them from freezing, I am afraid that hope has been nipped in the bud.”


Also, gas that would have gone to the U.S. is now going to Ontario, which has gone green, he says. The province is destroying older, coal-fired power plants and replacing them with gas-fired units. The end result: even less gas available for export to the U.S.


Gwozd says U.S. leaders will have to address this issue on the national level. And that means real solutions by the current presidential candidates. Those solutions range from conservation to a national strategy that streamlines the permitting and building of nuclear power plants.
“There are some real awkward moments coming for U.S. consumers,” Gwozd says. “The lack of gas coming through the pipes is a very serious issue. We feel it will become even more of an issue for the Americans very quickly.”

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