Company sources said that Russian oil output could fall by 500,000 to 1 MMbbl/d in 2023 after the EU ban.
The question arises as Russia targets Ukrainian energy assets during harsh winter conditions.
Oil cartel will take its time to evaluate impact of the EU’s ban on seaborne imports and the G7’s $60/bbl price cap for Russian crude.
Russian oil caps, OPEC+ inertia and new data challenges hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes
So far, Russia's ESPO oil blend was selling for around $79 a barrel in Asian markets on Dec. 5, almost a third higher than the new price caps.
EU countries have wrangled for days over the details of the price cap, which aims to slash Russia’s income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on Dec. 5.
The EU is currently debating a $65/bbl-$70/bbl price cap on Russian oil.
In Berlin's pursuit for new energy partnerships away from Russia, QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips will export 2 million tonnes per annum of LNG to Germany for at least 15 years starting 2026 through two sales and purchase agreements.
In response to a G7 proposal to cap Russian oil prices, the Kremlin has promised to re-route supplies to countries that do not support the idea, with both China and India increasing oil purchases from Moscow.
When asked about the impact of the EU measures, IEA’s Fatih Birol said: “We expect towards the end of the first quarter 2023 that there may be a loss of 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil and there is a need to replace that oil.”